EBA outlines 2016 stress test for banks

The new stress test will subject 51 banks to the EBA’s worst-case scenario, including potential EU GDP contraction and asset price deflation

 
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The European Banking Authority has released the methodology of the 2016 stress test it will apply to European financial institutions. A sample of 51 banks, covering 70 percent of the European Union’s banking sector, will be tested.

The test will focus on how the sample reacts to major ‘worst case’ potential shocks

It comes at a time of increasing concern over the health of Europe’s banking sector among investors. Fears over a systemic profitability crisis among banks and prolonged negative interest rates have recently troubled both bank equity investors and bank CoCo bondholders.

The test will focus on how the sample reacts to major ‘worst case’ potential shocks to the European economy. These will include as 1.3 percent contraction in the EU’s GDP in 2017, alongside a slowdown in important emerging markets, sovereign debt default, and a slump in commodity and house prices.

However, the stress test does not factor in one of the main concerns over the EU’s economy and financial health: negative interest rates. Nor does it take into account the potential outcome of Britain’s referendum on its continued EU membership, set for June.

The sample used is also smaller than previous years, with banks deemed less systemically important excluded. The EBA claims this is so it can focus on a more “homogeneous sample of large banks, to ensure greater comparability”.

The result of this is institutions in some of the continents most troubled region will escape scrutiny: only one Greek bank will be included while none from Portugal will. In a previous stress test in 2014, when the sample of banks was larger (130), a total of 25 banks failed.

The results of the stress test are due to be published in the third quarter of 2016.